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Pilarski says: $40 a barrel, not $400
27 April 2011
Oil prices will climb, but will eventually fall drastically, says Adam Pilarski, senior vice-president, Avitas, in his monthly column.
In March at the Istat conference in Phoenix I made a number
of bold predictions. Some of them I know will not materialize
but I made them nonetheless to encourage participants to think
about the future in more creative ways.
None of my predictions generated as much controversy as my
expressed belief that oil prices will fall below $40 a barrel
in less than a decade. A number of prominent aviation
executives asked whether I actually meant to say $400 instead
of $40/barrel? In fact, I meant $40/barrel, and I am willing to
bet on this.
In the short term a $400/barrel oil price is also a distinct
possibility. Should the political upheaval in the Middle East
spread to Saudi Arabia, panic may set in and lead to a
temporary oil price spike reaching unprecedented levels. In the
medium to long term though, economic realities will bring
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