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Last word: The year ahead

01 December 2004

Airfinance Journal has consulted palms, tarot cards, tea leaves, crystal balls, horoscopes, goat entrails and even some economist forecasts to give you an exclusive peak at what will happen in 2005. (Although we have made every effort to ensure the accuracy of this forecast, we do not accept legal responsibility for consequences that may arise from anyone relying on it.)

Read more: Airbus airline Airlines Chapter 11 Airways Ryanair. Oil Soutwest Airlines

January
Michael O'Leary starts the year by saying that there is plenty of room for other airlines in Europe to grow and that Ryanair greatly admires legacy carriers like British Airways.
Oil hits $70 a barrel because of rumours of a possible US invasion of Iran.

February
Despite analysts forecasting that fuel will average $37 a barrel, by Valentine's Day, it has already broken the $60 ceiling. This is bad news for everyone except Southwest, which announces that it is 100% hedged at $1 a barrel for eternity and a day.

March
With Japanese operating leases threatened, many airlines turn to Babcock & Brown's proprietary Mongolian leveraged lease. However, capacity runs out quickly.

April Oil hits $70 a barrel because rumours of a US invasion of Venezuela. As fuel costs rise, several low-cost airlines react...


Quote

“At the current pricing it will become attractive again to issue Ex-Im-guaranteed bonds. This will help stabilize and drive pricing down from where it is now.”

Kostya Zolotusky, managing director, capital markets, Boeing Capital, says about the price of export credit.

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